2026 season projections
Game Projections
Every FBS matchup, sorted by model edge versus the current market.
Model Signal measures the size of that separation. Signal Confidence
separately measures how much prospective evidence supports each tier.
How Signals Work METHODOLOGY + CONFIDENCE KEY
Model Signal classifies the absolute difference between
our fair line and the current market. A larger signal means the model
and market are farther apart; it does not automatically mean the bet is
more historically reliable. Signal Confidence is a
separate evidence grade earned prospectively from sample size, ATS
performance, closing-line value and beat-close rate.
ALIGNED
0–2.5 pts
SMALL EDGE
3.0–5.0 pts
PLAY
5.5–7.0 pts
MATERIAL DISAGREEMENT
7.5–10.0 pts
OUTLIER
10.5+ pts
DEVELOPING
Evidence accumulating.
VALIDATED
50+ decisions · ≥52.5% ATS · positive avg CLV · ≥52.5% beat close.
ESTABLISHED
100+ decisions · ≥53.0% ATS · positive avg CLV · ≥55% beat close.
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Select a team to view its dossier.
Team database
Teams
Browse every FBS program and open its full model dossier.
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Model foundation
Power Ratings
Model ratings are separated from raw 2026 performance so projected team
strength is never confused with current-season results. Offensive and
defensive live metrics are shown with their tracked sample sizes.
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Historical distributions
Variance Lab
Historical base rates for coaching changes, quarterback transitions, coordinator turnover and full program resets.
Coming Soon
Roster movement
Transfer Portal
Arrivals, departures, net roster impact and projected unit strength.
Coming Soon